Abstract

Anticipation of future demand for skills gets increasing attention in the policy community. There are various views about anticipation with little communication between the different 'camps' (quantitative economic forecasting, scenario methods, survey and market observation, qualitative-communicative approaches, etc.) Currently, the issues of competences and of outcome orientation are bringing also new aspects into anticipation discourse and practice.

Main questions and objectives of the symposium: first whether and how the different approaches and methodologies can be brought reasonably together into a system of knowledge management; second how the different approaches and methodologies are able to cope with the new developments.

Anticipation is often seen as a technical issue: if we had a sophisticated methodology, we would be able to forecast. However, this view is incorrect and misleading. In fact anticipation is closely related to several basic questions of how we understand the role of education, qualifications, and competences in the economy and society. Moreover, anticipation necessarily contributes to the shaping of future relations between supply and demand. The following issues must be raised:

• Different views exist about how supply and demand interact - a qualification framework might influence those interactions (or not), thus a main question concerns its role in those interactions, and in anticipation.
• Different views exist about anticipation rationale and methods - how can methods be reasonably valued and brought together for utilisation? Can this issue be handled in terms of knowledge management frameworks?
• The new concepts about competences and learning outcomes might challenge the traditional concepts - which consequences do those new concepts have for the practices and activities of anticipation, how can they be integrated in anticipation practice?

Methods

The methodological attempt is mainly analytical, influenced by empirical studies of anticipation practices in different countries. The symposium will bring together different perspectives starting from different aspects of anticipation each: first an European approach of forecasting, second an analysis of the meaning of qualifications and competences in anticipation, third a framework for a broader anticipation approach as social knowledge management which might combine forecasting and other methodologies. The discussant should work out the critical issues in a comprehensive perspective on the background of his experience.

Results

An important common issue to be discussed and worked out is the role of the institutional level at supply and demand side either, in its relation to the practices of the actors and the market dynamics. From the different perspectives different requirements to the institutional frameworks in ET and employment can be detected. Another important issue is the relation of a more theoretical and conceptual work to the real practices of anticipation at the policy level.

Bibliography

• Cedefop (2008): Future skill needs in Europe. Medium-term forecast: synthesis report. Luxembourg: Office for Official Publications of the European Communities.
• Lassnigg, Lorenz (2006), Approaches for the anticipation of skill needs in the "Transitional Labour Market" perspective - the Austrian experience, in: Wissenschaftszentrum Berlin fuer Sozialforschung (WZB) (ed.), Discussion paper SP I 2006-105.
• Lassnigg, Lorenz; Markowitsch, Jörg (Hrsg.) (2005), Qualität durch Vorausschau. Antizipationsmechanismen und Qualitätssicherung in der österreichischen Berufsbildung, Studienverlag, Innsbruck-Wien.
• Nieuwenhuis, Loek (2005): Gestaltung der Zukunft: Umgang mit der Unsicherheit bei der Entwicklung und dem Angebot von Berufsbildung. In: Schmidt, Susanne L. et al. (eds.) Ermittlung künftiger Qualifikationserfordernisse. Forschungstransfer in Politik und Praxis. Cedefop Reference series.
• Planas, Jordi et al. (2001), The skills market: dynamics and regulation. In: Descy/Tessaring (eds.), Training in Europe. Second report on vocational training research in Europe 2000: background report. Luxembourg

Contribution#1566: The Concept of competence within the framework of anticipation of demand for skills and qualifications

Abstract

The paper rises the question of how formal qualifications (certificates, curricula, etc.) in contrast to substantial concepts (knowledge, competencies, etc.) are, and can be included in approaches of anticipation or early recognition.

The updating of employees competences according to the changing qualification requirements is situated within a market which reacts to signals in terms of certificates and occupational degrees. But within a dynamic economy qualifications are developing and changing so fast that it is impossible to identify them according to certificates and formal qualifications. Within this context competences are gaining importance because they are linked to the more dynamic perspective of individuals and their experiences and skills acquired in the work.

The paper uses the concept of exchange value and utility value of competences (see Nieuwenhuis 2005) in order to describe the dynamics between stability and change aspects of qualifications and their linkages to the labour market. The institutional requirements and exchange processes on the labour market are based on the exchange value of competences. They imply the stability of qualifications as a value. The utility value describes the work tasks and requirements and how they are accomplished. Based on these conceptions the paper aims to analyse different existing views and methods, communication frameworks and actors/institutions on how anticipation might be achieved.

Bibliography

• Nieuwenhuis, Loek (2005): Gestaltung der Zukunft: Umgang mit der Unsicherheit bei der Entwicklung und dem Angebot von Berufsbildung. In: Schmidt, Susanne L. u.a (Hrsg.) Ermittlung künftiger Qualifikationserfordernisse. Forschungstransfer in Politik und Praxis. Cedefop Reference series.

Contribution#1567: Anticipation of skills and competences in a social system of knowledge creation?

Abstract

The paper works out the different strengths and weaknesses of the various approaches of anticipation, and outlines how they might be combined in a social system of knowledge management, which brings together the different actors as well as the different kinds and sources of knowledge. A systematic analysis of the main aspects of anticipation in Austria is used for illustration (Lassnigg/Markowitsch 2005; Lassnigg 2006).

The focus is first on the observation and measurement of the relation between education/training and employment, and second on foresight as a strategy for anticipation of future needs, which is different from forecasting in applying other methodologies, and by bringing the actors and their informal knowledge and strategic plans into the system.

The requirements for an anticipation system as a system of knowledge management include the following essential elements:

• First, understanding of what is going on at present is essential, if we want to have an understanding of what might be possible futures.
• Second, the supply of education and training, initial and continuing, has to be seen in a constructivist way, as not only responding to, but also structuring demand.
• Third, the variables and categories of demand (occupations, skills, competences, etc.) must also be seen as an institutional reality which is constructed, not as a plain reality which is given.

Bibliography

• Lassnigg, Lorenz (2006), Approaches for the anticipation of skill needs in the "Transitional Labour Market" perspective - the Austrian experience, in: Wissenschaftszentrum Berlin fuer Sozialforschung (WZB) (ed.), Discussion paper SP I 2006-105 [http://skylla.wz-berlin.de/pdf/2006/i06-105.pdf].
• Lassnigg, Lorenz; Markowitsch, Jörg (Hrsg.) (2005), Qualität durch Vorausschau. Antizipationsmechanismen und Qualitätssicherung in der österreichischen Berufsbildung, Studienverlag, Innsbruck-Wien.

Contribution#1733: Skillsnet - European approaches to skill needs anticipation

Abstract

Changing skill needs constitute challenges for policy making in the attempt to achieve wider social and economic objectives of cohesion and competitiveness in the European Union. The Council resolution on new skills for new jobs (15. Nov. 2007) draws attention to the practical steps that need to be taken in education and training to provide citizens with better opportunities to succeed on the labour market. These cover three areas: equipping people with the skills necessary for new jobs; working on transparency and validation, and on the identification of training needs; and the need for a better anticipation of skills needs and gaps on the labour market.

A European system for forecasting skill needs did not exist. Responding to the demand of EU policy-makers, and on the suggestion of national experts, Skillsnet, Cedefop's network on early identification of skill needs, explores the feasibility of a European skill needs forecasting system on occupational and skills needs.

Two main paths are being pursued: in the short-term, the set up of a pan-European forecasting model relying on available data and, in the longer-term, aligning national level sources to establish a European core forecasting system.